Course 626 Web Page

McGill University, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics

Course EPIB-626: RISKS AND HAZARDS (updated January 10, 2018)

Links to other Courses(JH)   607   613   622    678   681   697   323   med2

Advancing Global Public Health [University of Michigan]

The Thomas Francis Jr. Medal: Celebrating the 50th Anniversaryof the Polio Vaccine Announcement

Article The Biggest Public Health Experiment Ever: The 1954 Field Trial of the Salk Poliomyelitis Vaccine
Paul Meier, University of Chicago
[ Chapter 2 in Tanur JM et al. (Editors) Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown. Holden-Day San Francisco 1972 ]

From exam, December 2003

question 2 (pdf)

From exam, December 2002

Q 1 --Hep B vaccination Taiwan (pdf)        Q 2--RCT of HPV type 16 vaccine(pdf)

Material for possible exam questions and Answers to Queries


Universal hepatitis B vaccination and the decreased mortality from fulminant hepatitis in infants in Taiwan



* Has Misdiagnosis of Appendicitis Decreased over Time?  Article  Questions

* Impact of a helmet law on two wheel motor vehicle crash mortality  Excerpt and Questions

* The Effect of Raloxifene on Risk of Breast Cancer in Postmenopausal Women  Abstract and Questions

* Lidkoping Injury Prevention Program (Raw data, SAS printouts and questions)

Material for Homework [2003]

homework 2003 (.pdf) [course 626, Fall 2003]

Poisson Distribution; Inference re Rates { * = most relevant for course 681}

* Armitage, Berry and Matthews
    Ch3.7 The Poisson Distribution    Ch5.2 Inferences from Counts

* Walker (Observation and Inference)
    Ch8: Estimation Analysis of Open Cohort Studies 

* Notes by JH (.pdf)

Poisson Process (Excel Macro)
{ 'unprotect' Excel sheets if you wish to alter the layout .. under Tools menu -> Protection}

On the error of counting with a haemocytometer: by STUDENT Biometrika 5(3) 1907 pp351-360

(from Feller's textbook) Observations fitting the PoissonDistribution

Horse kicks, anthrax, and the Poisson model for deaths [article by Gerry Hill]

Deaths from Horsekicks--from von Bortkiewicz (1898)     Data_and_Programs(.txt)

Randomness at the root of things 2: Poisson sequences [article from Physics Education]

The rate of audience fidget (Francis Galton)

Exact confidence limits on a Poisson parameter: Notes by FDKLiddell (.gif)

* Exact confidence limits on a Poisson parameter: Excel worksheet
{ 'unprotect' Excel sheets if you wish to alter layout .. under Tools menu -> Protection}

Simplified exact analysis of case-referent studies: matched pairs: dichotomousexposure
FDK Liddell J Epi and Comm. Health 37 82-84, 1983 (.gif files)   |   page 82   |   page 83  |   page 84

Simple exact analysis of the standardized mortality ratio
FDK Liddell J Epi and Comm. Health 37 85-88, 1984 (.gif files)   |   page 85   |   page 86  |   page 87   |   page87

Effect of Epilepsy or Diabetes Mellitus on Risk of Automobile Accidents
  |   Table 4   |   Calculationsfor Table 4   |   Table 5   |  Table 6   |  | Mantel-Haenszel and Regression analysis

Cancers in Alberta study of SourGas   |  | regression analysis (1 x 1 table)
Double Trouble in Moose Jaw
Births after 1965 New York City Blackout
Postponement of Death Until Symbolically Meaningful Occasions
Full Moon and Crime
Is Scouting Safe? (.pdf)
Women are Safer Pilots: Study (.pdf)   |  | analyses

Impact sanitaire de la vague de chaleur en France survenue en août 2003
Rapport d'étape 29 août 2003

1. Contexte et chronologie de la mise en place de diverses études
2. Bref rappel des connaissances sur les effets sanitaires de la chaleur (88K)

3. Caractéristiques de la vague de chaleur d'août 2003 (676K)

4. Evolution de l'épidémie et première évaluation de son ampleur (78K)

5. Présentation des différentes enquêtes et des principaux résultats obtenus (389K)

6. Bilan de l'impact de la vague de chaleur dans les autres pays
Conclusion / Références bibliographiques / Annexes (100K)

Number of in-hospital deaths at Edouard Herriot Hospital , and Daily Maximal Temperatures during summers of 2002 and 2003, Lyon, France. Vanhems P et al. New Eng J Med Nov 20, 2003, pp 2077-2078.

article and data:
heatwave_lyon.txt   heatwave_lyon.csv

The Effect of Raloxifene on Risk of Breast Cancer in PostmenopausalWomen (.pdf)

A Meta-analysis of Coffee Drinking, Cigarette Smoking, and the Risk of Parkinson's Disease

Are there excess Sharons in genitourinary clinics? (.pdf)

Christmas Editions of the British Medical Journal



see especially 'Effects of remote, retroactive intercessory prayer on outcomesin patients with bloodstream infection: randomised controlled trial'







Homework 2001 and earlier

2001 and earlier (.pdf)

Regression for Risks(proportions) and Rates

Models of Disease Association (section 2.4 of Breslow and Day Volume I)
p53     p54-5    p56-7     p58-9    p60-1     p62-3    p64-5     p66-7    p68-9

Notes (.pdf)

Numbers of male/female births, Canada and Provinces 1931-90-- Excerpt from CMAJ article (.pdf) --sas program
Numbers of male/female births, USA and Regions 1971-90-- sas program

(see original article and exercise (based on diagram) on med2 webpage)

counts / person times measured from diagram, together with SAS program

Elementary Methods of Cohort Analysis: Breslow NE. Int. J of Epi 13(1) 112-115, 1984.

EXTRA-POISSON VARIATION : simple example (SASprogram)
NB: If sas programs won't open, right click on link, saveto local drive, then open from sas editor.

LIFE CYCLE EVENTS IN 15th CENTURY FLORENCE: RECORDS OF THE MONTE DELLE DOTI. Alan Morrison, Julius Kirshner and Anthony Molho, AJE(1977) 106(6):487-492

Article (.pdf)

Changes in Fatal and Non-fatal Crash Rates on a Toll Highway 1   2   3   4   5   6    dataand sas program

Changes in Fatal and Non-fatal Crash Rates on a Toll Highway 1   2   3   4   5   6    dataand sas program

Impact on Neural Tube Defects


       JAMA Article    Correspondence   dataset (Excel)

       monthly raw data inside SAS program  quarterly raw data inside SAS program

      Ontario 1986-1999 -- CMAJ   NovaScotia 1991-2000 -- CMAJ  

    Exercise on above material

    (2007) Presentation on this topic in Bios601

Modelling risk factors for injuries from dog bites in Greece: a case-only design and analysis

Effects of screening on cervical cancer incidence and mortality in New South Wales implied by influences of period of diagnosis and birth cohort

Effect of air-pollution control on death rates in Dublin, Ireland: an intervention study

A matter of life and death: population mortality and football results

Birth order and mortality:a life-long follow-up of 14,200 boys and girls born in early 20th century Sweden

Links between conditional logistic regression for matched sets and how Cox estimates hazard ratios in survival analysis..

J Hanley: Survival analysis; risk sets; case control studies: a unified view of some epidemiologic data-analyses

(draft) article I     (draft) article II

3 additional items (from report on Woburn study) for article II: Fig 1   Table1    Table2

Analysis of Contaminated Well Water and Health Effects in Woburn, Mass [Lagakos, Wessen, Zelen; JASA '86]

PDF High Quality- Larger file size with high-quality resolution.[2.8 MB]
PDF Economy - Smallerfile size with fax-quality resolution. [772K]


PDF HighQuality - Larger file size with high-quality resolution.[965K]
PDF Economy- Smaller file size with fax-quality resolution. [290K]

[C L A S S I C ] Cox DR. Regression models and Lifetables, JRSS 1972.

PDF High Quality- Larger file size with high-quality resolution.[3.5 MB]
PDF Economy - Smaller file size with fax-quality resolution. [985 K]

Material on Competing Risks Analysis

Prognosis of Conservatively Treated Prostate Cancer

Deprivation, disease, and death in Scotland:graphical
display of survival of a cohort

Projections concerning Hepatitis C

Material from previous years

"Direct" and "Indirect" Standardization:2 sides of same coin?(.pdf)

Other Resources

In honour of Nathan Mantel's 80th Birthday [from Statistics in Medicine]

Premature Death in Jazz Musicians: Fact or Fiction?   letter to American J Public Health

Hockey-epidemiology?   Pour battre Roy, mieux vaut lancer bas...

(Mostly Real) Examples of Simpson's Paradox


Accident rates - U.S. Charter vs. Regularly Scheduled airlines
data+sas+explanation     data, with header, for R
Time Change -- accident data -- documentation-- sas
addicts' data -- documentation-- sas
asthma data -- documentation --sas
avalanche data -- documentation-- sas
berkeley data -- documentation-- sas
bladder cancer data -- documentationand sas
breast cancer data -- documentation-- sas
cabg data -- documentation -- sas
cadmium data -- documentation-- sas

Susceptibility to the Common Cold

data (see documentation) - documentation-- sas code & raw data   .csv file

cororary data (British Doctors) -- documentation-- sas
Month of birth and risk of Crohn's disease BMJarticle -- sas program, incl data
Crying... data -- documentation (Gordon/Foss)-- sas -- Cox's paper (Bka1966)

(British) doctors lung cancer data -- documentation-- sas
Down's syndrome data_documentation_sas_program |  analyses
esophagus data -- documentation-- sas
Fox and Collier data   documentation  sas
Framingham data...from Kahn and Sempos    documentation   sas permanentfile (.sd2)
herpes data   documentation   sas

HIV data (NEJM)   data
sas program (incl raw data)num. and denom. in same obsn.  
sas program: each obsn. has outcome= 0 or 1, and associatedfrequency
link to NEJM article (under logistic regression)

hurricane/cyclone data

USA_Today_1995_data_plus_Sas/Stata statements (.txt)  | USA_Today_glim |  USA_Today_glim_elem_analyses    | 

Yearly_Storms_Dataset (.xls)   |  Yearly_Storms_Dataset_SAS_documentation (.txt)  

BBC_News_2005  | Science_article_2005  | Montreal_Gazette_2005

iceland breast cancer data   documentation  sas
infertility data   documentation  sas
Leisure World data -- documentation-- sas
Leisure World data (incl derived variables) -- documentation-- sas

Lidkoping Injury Prevention Program:

* Full text
(each page [gif file] approx 280K) 1   2   3   4  
* Critique (each page [gif file] approx 280K)   1   2
* Commentary on Critique
(2 gif files, approx 380K in total)   1    2

sas pgm (incl raw data data)   abbreviateddocumentation and exercise
sas permanent dataset (sas 6)

liver data -- documentation --sas
low birthweight data -- documentation-- message from interested party -- sas
montana data -- documentation-- sas
standard (U.S.) respiratory cancer mortality data -- documentation -- sas
mystery data -- documentation-- sas
nickel data -- documentation --sas
O-ring data (Challenger Space Shuttle O-Ring Data) -- documentation -- sas
oxford data -- documentation --sas
pbc data -- documentation -- sas
Québec monthly births/deaths data -- documentation-- sas
Québec mortality data (female) -- documentation-- sas
Québec mortality data (male) -- documentation-- sas male, female data, in same file sassd2 file
Earthquakes magnitude 7.0 or greater 1900 - 1998 -- documentation-- sas
strata data -- documentation --sas
stroke data -- documentation --sas
Thériault data (inside sas pgm)
UV light data -- documentation-- sas
vasectomy data -- documentation-- sas
vets data -- documentation -- sas