Statistical Analyses in the Time of COVID-19
JH Aug 28, 2020
1a. Immunogenicity of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2
1 What LEVELS of immunity are found in patients who have recovered from COVID-19? (PANEL B)
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2 Relative to these, at 28 days say, what LEVELS of immunity are found in persons who have received the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine? CONTRAST Panel A (prime, 28 days) vs PANEL B.
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3 What is the TIME COURSE of immunity LEVELS in persons who have received the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine?: Panel A (prime) 0, 7, 14, 28, 56 days
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http://www.biostat.mcgill.ca/hanley/statbook/CovisVaccineOxford.pdf
1b. Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1
http://www.biostat.mcgill.ca/hanley/statbook/AerosolStabilitySARS2vsSARS1.pdf
Viability of SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 in Aerosols and on Various Surfaces. As shown in Panel A, the titer of aerosolized viable virus is expressed in 50% tissue-culture infectious dose (TCID50) per liter of air. Viruses were applied to copper, cardboard, stainless steel, and plastic main- tained at 21 to 23°C and 40% relative humidity over 7 days. The titer of viable virus is expressed as TCID50 per milliliter of collection medium. All samples were quantified by end-point titration on Vero E6 cells. Plots show the means and standard errors (I bars) across three replicates. As shown in Panel B, regression plots indicate the predicted decay of virus titer over time; the titer is plotted on a logarithmic scale. Points show measured titers and are slightly jittered (i.e., they show small rapid variations in the amplitude or timing of a waveform arising from fluctuations) along the time axis to avoid overplotting. Lines are random draws from the joint posterior distribu- tion of the exponential decay rate (negative of the slope) and intercept (initial virus titer) to show the range of possible decay patterns for each experimental condition. There were 150 lines per panel, including 50 lines from each plotted replicate. As shown in Panel C, violin plots indicate posterior distribution for the half-life of viable virus based on the estimated ex- ponential decay rates of the virus titer. The dots indicate the posterior median estimates, and the black lines indicate a 95% credible interval. Experimental conditions are ordered according to the posterior median half-life of SARS-CoV-2. The dashed lines indicate the limit of detection, which was 3.33×100.5 TCID50 per liter of air for aerosols, 100.5 TCID50 per milliliter of medium for plastic, steel, and cardboard, and 101.5 TCID50 per milliliter of medium for copper.
2a. Case Fatality Rates
1 Case Fatality Rate, Ontario overall [grey]
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3 Gradient: Case Fatality Rate, Age specific Case fatality [shown]
2b. Cases within 1 mo. of Stay-at-Home Order [Illinois] or not [Iowa]
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http://www.biostat.mcgill.ca/hanley/statbook/IowaIllinoisBorder.pdf
3. (Excess) deaths
See also https://www.rip.ie and http://www.medicine.mcgill.ca/epidemiology/hanley/Pandemics/ [bottom of page]